The irrelevance of toff-bashing

The government is hoping that the electorate will reject the Conservative party on the basis that they are a bunch of toffs. But it is not at all obvious that the British hold their traditional elites in all that much disdain. The question, I suspect, is how we interpret the cultural politics of the 1990s.

In terms of cultural sociology, John Major’s period in office was arguably the most interesting in Britain since the 1970s. It was circa 1990-97 that working class identity went from being a source of political and economic antagonism, to becoming a form of cultural capital that could be exported and plundered for profit. Britpop, Lad culture, football and a re-remembering of Britain’s 1960s as a mod decade (working class) rather than a hippy one (middle class) enabled Britain to reinvent class as a cultural division—and therefore a more fluid one—rather than an economic one.

There was a sunny six-year period (between the launch of Loaded magazine and the emergence of the word ‘chav’ ) in which men with shaved heads and trainers suddenly appeared appealing to the liberal middle class, comfortingly local yet foreign at the same time. When Jarvis Cocker muttered in 1995 “take your Year in Provence and shove it up your ass” he no doubt inadvertently spoke for many middle class men as well. To this day, the number of people bracketed as ‘working class’ by sociologists is falling, while the number identifying as such is rising.

While this was going on, John Major’s government looked like an old guard who’d had their day. The disappearance of an antagonistic working class surely reduced many voters’ psychological attachment to elderly men in pin-striped suits, just as the end of the cold war meant that Americans were less inclined to have a protective father (i.e. Republican) in the White House.

But we have to be wary of granting these cultural phenomena too much political weight or historical permanence. Would things really have been any different if the Tories had removed their ties or talked football? Moreover, once class becomes understood in cultural terms as opposed to economic ones, no class is ever doomed to the historical dustbin, but can wax and wane over the years. Some variant of toff culture can quite easily make a comeback, if only due to the vagaries of fashion.

Staffed by wonks, New Labour retains a more economic notion of class than most of the British electorate, and is acutely conscious of the contrasting backgrounds of the Cabinet and the Shadow Cabinet. The former believe in meritocracy because they see themselves as examples of it, while painting the Camerons as examples of aristocracy. But how much does that distinction resonate with the British public? Aristocrats are no richer than meritocrats in 2008, in fact the reverse is often the case (as John Hutton has crudely celebrated). There is nothing intrinsically more ‘normal’ about Ed Balls spending his youth poring over economics books than Cameron quaffing expensive wine. To claim otherwise is the narcissism of small differences. If Britain has anything like Australia’s ‘tall poppy syndrome’, it may even be more hostile to social climbers (that is, meritocrats) than to lucky hedonists (aristocrats). If the latter confess to being a bit lazy but up for a bit of fun, then they may already be speaking the same language as many voters. Just ask George W Bush.

What is most galling about New Labour’s attack on toffs is that it trivialises and pastiches the sense of economic injustice that many on the Left have expressed, but which the government has steadfastly refused to acknowledge. Fierce inequalities in capital ownership (underpinned by the housing boom), in educational attainment, and even in health are suddenly being obscured by the suggestion that Eton College is the biggest threat to social justice today. The strategy is unlikely to succeed, and doesn’t deserve to.

Reasons not to be cheerful for Chelsea and Arsenal

This should have been Chelsea’s season. They started (and ended) with an outstanding manager. They spent more than anyone else. They were not in transition but had countless players at their peak, in their late 20s (Essien, 25; J. Cole and Wright-Phillips, 26; Malouda and Terry, 27; Anelka and Lampard, 29; Drogba, 30; Ballack, 31). They only had two players under 25. Their team, assembled by Ranieri and Mourinho, were settled: seven players had played over 150 times for Chelsea, key players all through the spine of the team (Cech in goal; both centre backs, Carvalho and Terry; Lampard, J. Cole and Makele in the middle and Drogba up front). Experienced, settled, balanced and at the top of their game. Temperamentally pretty sound.

And, crucially, both their main rivals — United and Arsenal — were still in transition, bedding in new acquisitions (Hargreaves, Anderson, Tevez and Nani) or building a new, young team. United had won one league title without Van Nistelroy, but could they win a second without a big-name striker and with so many new, young players? Arsenal had been even more radical. In two years (2006-07) they had lost Bergkamp, Cole, Pires and Campbell, then Lauren and Henry. Could Wenger’s latest new team sustain a long run with so many new or newish players?

Think of 15th August 2004. Chelsea under their new manager, Mourinho, beat United at Stamford Bridge. The United team that day is unrecognisable. Only Scholes and Giggs, Silvestre and O’Shea played for United that day.

Yes, Chelsea lost their manager. They had the Africa Cup which deprived them of key players at a crucial moment and they had a number of major injuries. But this still should have been their season. The prospect for next year is not as good. They have no strikers worth a damn apart from Drogba (hence those ten 1-0 wins—they only scored more than two goals six times in this season’s Premiership). More important, they only have a couple of young players (Mikel and Kalou). Crucial players are getting old. Makelele, superb against Gerrard in the Champions League, is 35. Ballack, Belletti, Shevchenko, Carvalho and Drogba are all past 30. There are ten players between 29 and 35. And then, crucially, there is the Mourinho factor. Sooner or later the Special One is going to turn up at a top Italian or Spanish club with a big chequebook and Drogba, and Carvalho at least, perhaps Lampard and Terry as well, will find it hard to resist his siren call. These are big players, Chelsea’s heart. Even if they’re possible to replace, it will cost more than £70 million. And then there’s the Grant question, still unresolved. he has done superbly well. Chelsea have made it to a Champions League final and were within a whisker of winning back the League title. But Abramovich still dreams of glory. He doesn’t just want to win, he wants to win gloriously. Grant, like Mourinho, is not a glory manager. He’s done well with the team he inherited from Ranieri and Mourinho. But can he rebuild a team?

This is what separates the great managers from the also-rans. Ferguson has done it again and again. So has Wenger. Think of Wenger’s team which did the Double in 1998: Seaman in goal, Dixon, Winterburn, Adams and Keown at the back, Petit and Vieria in midfield, Overmars and Bergkamp. By the team he did the Double again in 2002, Overmars and Petit had gone. In had come Ashley Cole, Henry and Kanu, Lauren, Pires and Wiltord and then Sol Campbell to replace Adams. Few of these played in the team that got to the Champions League Final in 2006. That famous defence had retired, Vieira, Kanu and Wiltord had gone. In had come Fabregas and Clichy, Flamini, van Persie and Hleb.

This permanent revolution costs money, but above all it takes guts. To dismantle a great team is painful. Think of Ferguson losing Cantona and then Keane, Schemichel, Pallister and Bruce, or the controversial decision to let go Ince, Hughes and Kanchelskis. They thought he was crazy to let Van Nistelroy go to Real Madrid, just as some thought Wenger would never manage without Henry, once he left for Barcelona. can Grant do it? Can he build a new team without the old and familiar heartbeat of Chelsea?

Is this Arsenal’s moment, again, after three seasons without silverware. Wenger’s new team isn’t old like Chelsea. It is young, full of potential. Fourteen players 26 or under. Even after Flamini and Lehmann, there are six players who have played more than 120 times for Arsenal. All of them, except for Gilberto, are at their peak. It could be Arsenal’s year.

And yet… He’s already lost Flamini. he may lose Hleb. if he loses Hleb, then will Fabregas stay? The centre of his team, that exhilarating midfield, could fall like dominoes. All three played more than 30 Premiership games this season. They were key players. It would be like 2006 all over again, when Wenger lost Bergkamp, Pires and Cole. Wenger’s been there before but he’s never had to go through this with a team before it had reached its potential. The team of 1998 did the Double, so did the modified team of 2002. The team of 2008 has not won anything. This raises an interesting question about Wenger. His great teams were a hybrid. European flair up front built on a rock-solid English defence which he had inherited. That famous defence went back to the ’80s (Dixon, Winterburn, Adams) and early ’90s (Seaman and Keown). They were all there before Wenger arrived. He has never built a defence like it and since Keown retired, Wenger has only won the FA Cup. Has Wenger got in him to build a great defence comparable to Arsenal’s then or Chelsea’s and United’s now? It doesn’t seem so. Without it, he is building on sand.

So, if Chelsea are getting old and Arsenal are still too young, what of United? Fergsuon too can hear the winged chariot of time. Neville, Giggs, Scholes and Van Der Sar are all in their mid-30s. None of them have more than one more season in them. But nine of his best players are 26 or under, another three are 27. While everyone has been looking at Wenger’s babes, no one has noticed how young Ferguson’s new generation are. Rooney is 22, Nani 21, Anderson 20. Ronaldo is 23, Tevez 24. Carrick, Fletcher and O’Shea are still in their mid-20s. Evra and Vidic too. Fergsuon has 17 players younger than Gallas, Carvalho or Drogba. There are still gaps to fill, but not as many as one might think. Anderson, Nani, Hargreaves and Tevez have bedded down incredibly quickly, in one season during which United have won the League and reached the Champions League final. Not bad for a transitional season. No wonder Ferguson thinks this might be his best team yet. Hard to beat at the back (even without Neville for an entire season); solid in midfield; thrilling up front. Wenger had one player who scared more than seven goals in the Premiership. Ronaldo, Tevez and Rooney scored almost 60 between them. Even the much vilified Saha scored five goals in the Premiership alone.

All will go shopping in the summer. Chelsea desperately. Arsenal perhaps desperately. Ferguson selectively. He will replace Saha and look for a crucial 4th striker. He needs at least one more top full-back and perhaps cover for Ferdinand and Vidic (who missed only nine matches between them—can he be so lucky again?). And perhaps a new goalkeeper to go with Ben Foster. Then the $64,000 question. Think of Scholes’ goal against Barcelona or Giggs’ at Wigan. Will the current midfield manage without them?

It looks like next year might be United’s. But then this year’s should have been Chelsea’s.

That Was The Season That Was

1. Most Dignified Managers

The most dignified in the face of defeat was Avram Grant, both because he was so close to victory, against all expectations, and because he was constantly underrated and sneered at.

The most dignified in the face of victory (just as hard) was Roy Hodgson at Fulham, who spoke generously of Reading and Birmingham, knowing full well how close he’d come.

2. Least Dignified Manager

Wenger was justified in feeling his team had deserved better—they had played wso well, scored so many goals and accumulated so many points and still ended up 3rd. And yet they had fallen short in too many crucial games against the other big teams (losing to Liverpool in the Champions League, only 1 point against United and thrashed in the FA Cup and overtaken by Chelsea thanks to a defeat at Stamford Bridge).

3. Most Silly Remark

It had to be Keegan: the Premiership has become too boring. Really? The closest race for the title of the top division in 40 years with two teams separated by goal difference until injury time in the last match and three teams fighting to stay up until Danny Murphy’s goal decided it in the last minutes at Portsmouth.

4. Most Welcome Return

It has to be Keegan. Not that he’s done anything yet, but fond memories of the beautiful game his Newcastle team played in the 1990s are not confined to Tyneside.

5. Best buy

Several categories here. a) Torres stands out among the big money buys. Runner-up: Tevez. who got better and better as the season drew on, scoring numerous crucial goals (most obviously at Blackburn and Tottenham). b) Santa Cruz at Blackburn as best buy among the smaller clubs.

6. Worst buy

Anelka started 23 matches for Chelsea and came on a sub nine times and scored—two goals. Even by the standards of Malouda (3 goals in 44 games) and Pizarro (2 in 52) that’s pretty poor. By comparison, Shevchenko (21 goals in 98 games, more than 1:5) was a great buy.

7. Worst moment for a player

Eduardo’s injury was the most shocking but will Riise ever forget that own-goal against Chelsea?

8. Best Achievement by a Manager

All the managers of the top clubs could lay claim to this. Ferguson because he rebuilt a Premiership winning team yet again, playing exciting attacking football but also conceding fewer goals than anyone else. Grant for defying all expectations and making Chelsea virtually unbeatable in the run-in. Wenger for all the beauty and entertainment with such small resources by comparison with the teams above him. Benitez for almost getting Liverpool to yet another Champions League final with all the chaos going on in the background at Liverpool.

And then there are the next level of clubs: David Moyes, getting Everton to 5th place without a single star player, Mark Hughes getting Blackburn to 7th and Harry Redknapp getting Portsmouth to the top ten and to Wembley on a shoestring.

And then there are the miracle workers down at the bottom: Roy Hodgson, of course; Gary Megson for rescuing Bolton; Roy Keane (the only manager of a club promoted last season to keep them in the Premiership); and Steve Bruce to have kept Wigan safe. The last three were out of the relegation dog-fight with a week to spare.

Tottenham fans will add that they won silverware, scored more goals than Chelsea and got to mid-table while conceding more than 60 goals. And Newcastle fans will say that Keegan brought them hope of exciting football again.

9. The George Graham prize for 1-0 wins

Ten of Chelsea’s 25 Premiership wins were 1-0. They scored fewer goals than Arsenal, Liverpool and 15 fewer than United. They even scored fewer than Villa and Tottenham. They were effective and sometimes exciting — but only rarely.

10. Best newspaper coverage

It has to be The Times, though strangely they faltered at the very end and both the Telegraph and, in particular, The Guardian provided much better coverage of the last round of matches. Brian Glanville award for best football writer: Martin Samuel of The Times.

Prospect online this week

The great faultline in Turkish politics is usually considered to be the authoritarian secularists, as represented by the army, vs the democratic Islamists, who in the form of the AK party are currently in government. The recent attempt by the country’s chief prosecutor to get AK closed down for violating the country’s secular order is seen as merely the latest example of this feud, which dates back to the founding of modern Turkey by Atatürk.

But this is dichotomy is a false one, argues Nicholas Birch in a web exclusive for Prospect. Both the secularists and the Islamists are locked into a “Kemalist” system that ties Turkey’s form of Sunni Islam close to the state in a brew of piety and nationalism. At the heart of the Islamist posturing so hated by secularists is their own authoritarian tradition of co-opting religion for national purposes.

Also this week, John Quiggin and Tim Lambert attempt to rehabilitate Rachel Carson, of Silent Spring fame, from right-wing attempts to smear her as responsible for the deaths of millions from malaria.

PLUS It’s your last chance to vote in the Prospect/Foreign Policy public intellectuals poll. Voting closes on Thursday; be sure to have your say.

Burma or Myanmar?

Slate provides a guide to the thicket of stylistic and political issues that face newspapers and magazines confronted with a city or country that has changed its name. Burma’s ruling military junta changed the country’s official (English) name to Myanmar back in 1989; some publications, like the New York Times, went along with the change immediately, others made the switch in later years, while others still prefer to stick with Burma, the name by which most English-speaking people still know the country.

The Economist got itself into a tangle over this last year during its coverage of the monks’ protests. The magazine has used the name Myanmar for as long as I can remember (its style guide states: “Where names are officially altered… the change should be respected.”) Yet finding itself with a Burma/Myanmar cover story, quite possibly for the first time since the name change, the magazine plumped for “Burma’s saffron revolution” as its cover line, presumably on the basis that the marginal Economist reader, idly browsing the current affairs section in WH Smith, was likely to be turned off by the unfamiliar ring of “Myanmar.” Nevertheless, the magazine stuck rigidly to its style guide inside, where there was nary a “Burma” to be seen.

The return of moderation

A somewhat reassuring message from polling guru John Zogby: Americans are returning to centrist politics— in their droves.

Speaking yesterday at Chatham house, Zogby recalled how in 2004 political moderation in the US was “on sabbatical.” The climate was so hyper-partisan that a full 9 months before the election, only 5 per cent of voters said they were undecided. It was, he said, an “armaggeddon election.”

Just four years later, however, roughly 35 per cent of Americans are still undecided on how they will vote. And even among those who are committed, views have become more moderate. Rove’s right-wing Christian alliance of “guns, God and gonads” has crumbled as the faithful have become increasingly worried about poverty, healthcare and global warming (framed as the “damage man has done to God’s earth”).

Part of this change comes from obvious circumstances. The downturn in the economy, Iraq fatigue, and the federal government’s abject failure to protect its citizens in the face of a seismic natural disaster (Katrina) have produced a fundamental crisis in confidence in the existing system of government. Eighty per cent of Americans think that the US is “headed in the wrong direction”: higher even than it was during the height of the Watergate scandal. But while people are angry, they are not bitter, Zogby emphasised: instead, they are participating more in politics, and rallying behind candidates who offer new political visions—McCain and Obama. (Like any sensible statistician, Zogby has already ruled Clinton out of the race).

While he would not be drawn on who will win the final contest, he did emphasise that Obama does not have a monopoly on “change”, and it will serve the Democratic strategists well to remember this when they turn their attention to the November battle. As much as they might try to portray McCain as Bush Mark II, he is anything but: he has acquired a reputation as a maverick, an iconoclast—and, crucially, as a moderate who is willing to work with opponents in order to get things done. And bipartisanship is what Americans are now really looking for.

He also suggested that this election could end the red/blue paradigm. Because both candidates have crossover appeal, while remaining unpopular with large segments of their own parties (Obama with older white Democrats, McCain with Republicans in the Bible belt), Zogby forsees a number of current red states like Colarado, New Mexico, Iowa and Virginia going blue; conversely Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota may make the opposite conversion. And whoever wins, he predicts that this election will produce fundamental changes in the way federal government operates—comparable in scale to the 1932 election which spawned the New Deal, or 1980 which ushered in Reaganism.

Needless to say, however, pollsters can get things spectacularly wrong. On the eve of Super Tuesday, Zogby gave Obama a 13 point lead in California. Obama then lost by a healthy 8 per cent.

Zogby himself is the first to concede he is not omniscient. In fact, he can be very blunt about the limits of his knowledge. “I have no idea who Hillary Clinton is—and I’ve told her this twice,” he admitted. “Her face changes with the wind.”

New books for old

There’s an article in the Guardian today about internet bookswapping and the websites that enable people to give away their spare books to strangers, while receiving other books in exchange. The piece was published in the ethical living section, and therefore focuses on the environmental benefits of book swaps. These are all well and good, but I suspect that most people using the sites, like me, merely appreciate the (nearly) free books. I’ve been a keen book swapper for over a year, after discovering the sites through LibraryThing, and I’ve found it be a wholly positive experience if you don’t count the time spent waiting in post office queues.

The Guardian mentions the two main websites for British users—BookMooch, which is international, and UK-only ReadItSwapIt—there are others, but none have yet built up the critical mass needed for effective swapping. (Also not included are eco-friendly GreenMetropolis, which some people use as a swapping site, and the more whimsical BookCrossing.) The writer doesn’t go into the respective merits of the two sites (I belong to both), possibly because it’s not a very equal contest. BookMooch’s founder, John Buckman, may have a lot more time to improve his site than ReadItSwapIt’s creators do. But that doesn’t account for the key drawback of ReadItSwapIt, which is the fact that you can only directly exchange books with other users. Instead of having a choice of all 175,757 books on the site, you are limited to the number the other user has. This can lead to some truly depressing encounters, where the person looking to swap with you has 30 books, but 27 of them are written by Stephen King (luckily, you are allowed to turn swaps down). It is, of course, an inefficient system, as bartering generally is, and a reminder of why we invented money in the first place.

BookMooch, on the other hand, runs on a points system. Entering your books into the database gives you points, as does other users requesting books from you. These points can be used to ask for, potentially, any of the 470,000-odd books on the site—with the caveat that not all users are willing to post internationally (although there is a way around that too). BookMooch’s user interface is also exemplary: it’s one of the most simple, transparent, logical and attractive sites that I visit.

BookMooch is not without flaws. It can seem impossible to get popular and recently published books, the site is down rather a lot, and I find the artwork on the homepage distractingly weird. But these are really quibbles. I could go on about the website’s other interesting features all day, but I’ll spare you and merely advise that you join, and find them out for yourself.

And now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m just off to post a book to Chile.

The Harvey files 4: the price of food

Soaring food prices have been hitting the headlines. Wheat recently reached new records, but in real terms (after adjusting for general inflation) it has only recently recovered to the levels it traded at in the early 1970s. Indeed, between 1973 and 2000 the price of wheat dropped by 80 per cent. This time around it has already lost more than a third from its peak.

In a few dramatic days in April, the price of rice almost doubled, but it remains over a third below its all-time highs in 1971-72.

While remaining volatile, food prices can be expected to maintain high levels more consistently this time around. Emerging countries have much more spending power and are using it to consume more food. Between 1985 and 2007, China’s population trebled the amount of meat they ate, to 65m tonnes. That absorbed much of last year’s world increase in grain production to 2.1bn tonnes. 40 per cent of that was fed to animals rather than humans.

Biofuels took another 5 per cent, neatly offsetting the growth in output. Ironically, the rush to supplant petrol is itself putting pressure on oil prices: agriculture is one of the largest consumers of oil through fuel and power, transport and, particularly, oil-based fertilisers.

So we can look forward to high food prices over the coming years—although the price of a loaf of bread has already risen by far more than the cost of the wheat it contains.

A quiet insurrection

While the world’s media continues to obsess over the Obama/Clinton deadlock, it seem to have gone relatively unnoticed that the Republican primary race is still on—at least for some.

McCain may have won enough votes to secure the nomination, yet Ron Paul’s followers are still lobbying delegates, with a surprising degree of success. Their quiet insurrection may not be far-reaching enough to change the course of history, (so far they’ve only successfully ‘grabbed’ a handful of delegates in a few county halls in Missouri and Nevada), but their antics certainly provide an entertaining diversion from what is fast becoming a morbidly boring stalemate.

Here come the tube-steppers

In recent years there’s been a general move towards political parties trying to use new technologies to engage citizens in ever more innovative ways. If there’s a latest web trend, you can bet your shirt that politicians will be all over it like a political rash. In the London mayoral elections we’ve seen Brian Paddick Twittering, Boris rally his legions on Facebook, and all candidates push their latest campaign films on YouTube.

Yet beyond these fairly mainstream campaign activities, there are signs of underhand new media tactics. In previous campaigns such moves would usually go unnoticed, but you can now use monitoring services like Opinion Tracker (which I set up) to monitor what people are doing and saying across the internet.

Possibly the most interesting under-the-radar campaign activity to surface in this year’s campaign is the rise of what I call “Tube-stepping.” Tube-stepping is a cross between the old journalistic trick of doorstepping and the new Asbo-generation technique of “happy-slapping,” and involves “members of the public” (actually they usually seem to be largely party activists) asking candidates difficult questions, catching their stuttering responses on a video phone and then posting these films on YouTube for the world to see (and laugh at).

So far Boris’s activists seem to be most adept at tube-stepping, with a whole campaign being orchestrated by a group calling itself Comrade Fidel. Team Ken have also had a go, taking a more conventional approach.

Looking at the numbers of views each of the films have got, I’m not sure tube-stepping is going to have much effect in this election. But no doubt we’ll be see bigger and better campaigns in the future.



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