First Drafts - The Prospect magazine blog

One final thought on yesterday. This year’s primary elections had what was known as a “compressed” timetable. The primaries all moved forward in the calendar, to create a bunch around February 5th. The day that in previous campaigns had been known as “Super Tuesday” is now “Super-duper Tuesday.” This was designed specifically to stop an insurgent candidate winning big, early, and then having time to build momentum.

But after this result, it means something different. The conventional wisdom was that, with this compressed timetable, the early states would choose the candidate. Many sages thought that the candidates would likely be picked by now. But the conventional wisdom has now been proved completely wrong. Now, the candidates will indeed be decided on the first Tuesday in February. And for the first time in American history, the country’s largest state will also vote on this day. Put another way, the next election will now be decided not by the people of Iowa, or New Hampshire, but by the people of California. California: with Mexico ten miles from San Diego; where a visibly pro-environment Austrian Republican sits in residence; where most cities are “majority minority”; where America’s innovation hubs are facing a recession; where much of America’s media is located. I have the strangest feeling that when they see the first picture of Hillary campaigning on Venice Beach, or John McCain crossing the Golden Gate Bridge, the good people of New Hampshire might reflect that this was not quite the outcome they intended.