First Drafts - The Prospect magazine blog

They will. But who wins?

[Editor's Note: hundreds, perhaps thousands of British volunteers have headed over to the US over the last few weeks to help on the various campaigns. One of these, Dr. Rick Muir of the Institute for Public Policy Research, gives us a few thoughts from Pennsylvania, where he and a number of friends have recently taken holiday, to campaign for Senator Obama.]

Philadelphia is, as they say over here, all fired up. Last week the Phillies won the World Series for the first time since 1980, prompting scenes of wild celebration in the city centre. Today the city is primed for the presidential election - and in this most Democratic corner of Pennsylvania, it is unambiguously clear whose side Philadelphians are on.   The town is festooned with posters of Barack Obama - part politician, part cult hero. Almost every second person in the street sports an Obama badge and Obama volunteers hand out posters and lawn signs on most street corners.

Philadelphia has become oddly important in this contest. Normally a relatively reliable blue state, it has gained electoral stature as being a must-win state for McCain. Now the Republicans have effectively written off swing-states like Michigan and Colorado, the GOP realise they must win here to stand any chance of an upset. Its also a strange state electorally - as democrat strategic James Carville once famously quipped, its got Philly at one end, Pittsburgh at the other, and Alabama in the middle. Sadly, for McCain, there is plenty of evidence here of the so-called ‘enthusiasm gap’ between the supporters of the two candidates…..

Last week Obama visited the nearby town of Chester - 9,000 people queued in torrential rain and almost freezing temperatures for three hours to see him speak in an outdoor arena.  The McCain campaign cancelled a rally at the same time because it was afraid no one would turn up in the bad weather.  On Saturday Obama volunteers knocked on 700,000 doors in Philadelphia. Then number is staggering enough. Multiplied across the country, it makes this possibly the most intense effort at grassroots mobilisation in democratic history.

This level of enthusiasm for a political campaign is extraordinary - dampened only by the fear of what might happen if Obama were to lose.  Expectations are so high that a narrow McCain win, unquestionably due in large part to race, could shatter this country in two and set back race relations for a generation.  But for now it seems clear that Philadelphia is hoping for the double - the World Series and a Democrat in the Whitehouse.